July 15, 2025

Trade War Impact For Canada

Strategically, a longer range outcome for Canada from this trade war & narrative would be a "look east" policy, perhaps for 3 simple reasons.

a) China, India constitute ~35% of global population and ~25% of GDP. Probably the only countries that as trade partners can provide the same level of consumption as US.

b) Emerging market trade is an increasing share of global trade (currently dominated by other emerging markets) - you want to hedge for the future by having a share of this growing trade bloc.

c) Overt reliance on one trading partner has hurt Canada and if policy makers were to learn from this - to diversify trading relationships for a multi-polar world, where do they look first?

Asia & Africa.

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